The argument settler

Luck vs Skill

A record is two things tangled together: how much you scored, and who you happened to play. These pull them apart. Every week each team is scored against all seven other teams, not just the one on the schedule — what’s left over is the schedule’s doing, not yours.

Luckiest ever
+7.0
Carl Dahlén
Unluckiest ever
-5.3
Claes Radojewski
Best manager
87.8%
Carl Dahlén, lineup efficiency
Biggest schedule swing
7
Nils N 2024, wins

All-Play: Wins Earned vs Wins Received

Actual wins minus expected wins, all-time. Green means the schedule handed you games; red means you lost matchups your scores deserved to win.

ManagerActual WExpected W?LuckTitles
Carl Dahlén3730.0+7.00
Per Svantesson2018.3+1.71
Crl Hjon119.7+1.29
Sebastian Nilsson3331.9+1.14
Jens Corneliusson3736.1+0.862
Albin Hamberg3637.6-1.572
Peter Nordström3132.7-1.71
Nils N3437.4-3.431
Claes Radojewski2934.3-5.29

Schedule Luck

Every season replayed against all eight fixture lists. 'Best' and 'worst' are the records the same scores would have produced with the kindest and cruellest schedule in the league that year.

2025

Jens Corneliusson
4
9
+3.6
Carl Dahlén
1
6
+2.3
Crl Hjon
3
7
+1.5
Claes Radojewski
4
8
+0.5
Sebastian Nilsson
4
8
+0.3
Albin Hamberg
6
11
0.0
Nils N
4
10
-0.8
Peter Nordström
3
9
-0.9

2024

Sebastian Nilsson
2
8
+3.5
Carl Dahlén
4
8
+2.3
Peter Nordström
5
10
+1.4
Jens Corneliusson
3
7
+1.1
Crl Hjon
2
5
+1.0
Nils N
1
8
-0.4
Albin Hamberg
5
8
-0.8
Claes Radojewski
5
9
-1.6

2023

Nils N
6
11
+2.6
Sebastian Nilsson
5
8
+1.8
Claes Radojewski
3
8
+1.5
Albin Hamberg
4
7
+1.4
Jens Corneliusson
3
6
+1.3
Carl Dahlén
2
5
-0.3
Peter Nordström
3
8
-0.5
Per Svantesson
3
7
-1.3

2022

Carl Dahlén
2
8
+2.6
Sebastian Nilsson
5
10
+2.4
Peter Nordström
4
10
+2.1
Per Svantesson
2
6
+1.9
Albin Hamberg
4
9
+0.6
Nils N
2
8
-0.1
Jens Corneliusson
5
9
-0.3
Claes Radojewski
4
10
-2.3

2021

Carl Dahlén
5
11
+3.9
Per Svantesson
3
10
+3.4
Albin Hamberg
4
8
+1.9
Claes Radojewski
4
7
+0.9
Peter Nordström
2
5
+0.3
Nils N
6
8
-0.1
Jens Corneliusson
9
11
-0.4
Sebastian Nilsson
1
5
-2.8

Bar spans worst → best possible record · gold marker is what actually happened · right column is wins above the average schedule

Games the Bench Cost You

Regular-season losses where the optimal lineup from that same roster would have outscored the opponent. Not bad luck — bad calls.

Worst Lineup Calls Ever

Single weeks with the largest gap between what was started and what could have been.

Nils N74.5
2021 wk 12 · started 96.1 of 170.6 (56%) · lost
Albin Hamberg70.9
2022 wk 17 · started 132.6 of 203.5 (65%)
Claes Radojewski69.0
2021 wk 12 · started 92.6 of 161.6 (57%) · lost
Peter Nordström67.8
2021 wk 17 · started 137.6 of 205.4 (67%)
Jens Corneliusson61.7
2023 wk 15 · started 113.1 of 174.8 (65%)
Sebastian Nilsson60.9
2022 wk 4 · started 109.9 of 170.8 (64%) · lost
Claes Radojewski59.4
2023 wk 15 · started 113.2 of 172.6 (66%)
Nils N58.4
2024 wk 3 · started 120.4 of 178.8 (67%) · lost

Best Managed Seasons

Lineup efficiency by season — how close a manager got to their roster's ceiling.

ManagerSeasonEfficiencyStartedOptimalLeft behind
Nils N202593.1%18341971137
Carl Dahlén202591.8%16121761148
Jens Corneliusson202190.7%20092215206
Jens Corneliusson202389.6%16451822177
Peter Nordström202289.5%18122021209
Sebastian Nilsson202388.6%17311952221
Carl Dahlén202188.6%18282061233
Claes Radojewski202488.5%17742003230
Per Svantesson202288.1%15661772206
Albin Hamberg202287.9%18052038232
Peter Nordström202587.9%17592007247
Nils N202287.6%17011945243