The argument settler

Luck vs Skill

A record is two things tangled together: how much you scored, and who you happened to play. These pull them apart. Every week each team is scored against all seven other teams, not just the one on the schedule — what’s left over is the schedule’s doing, not yours.

Luckiest ever
+7.0
Carl D.
Unluckiest ever
-5.3
Claes R.
Best manager
87.8%
Carl D., lineup efficiency
Worst manager
85.0%
Crl H., lineup efficiency
Worst managed season
82.1%
Sebastian N., 2021
Biggest schedule swing
7
Nils N. 2024, wins

All-Play: Wins Earned vs Wins Received

Actual wins minus expected wins, all-time. Green means the schedule handed you games; red means you lost matchups your scores deserved to win.

ManagerActual WExpected W?LuckTitles
Carl D.3730.0+7.00—
Per S.2018.3+1.71—
Crl H.119.7+1.29—
Sebastian N.3331.9+1.14—
Jens C.3736.1+0.862
Albin H.3637.6-1.572
Peter N.3132.7-1.71—
Nils N.3437.4-3.431
Claes R.2934.3-5.29—

Schedule Luck

Every season replayed against all eight fixture lists. 'Best' and 'worst' are the records the same scores would have produced with the kindest and cruellest schedule in the league that year.

2025

Jens C.
4
9
+3.6
Carl D.
1
6
+2.3
Crl H.
3
7
+1.5
Claes R.
4
8
+0.5
Sebastian N.
4
8
+0.3
Albin H.
6
11
0.0
Nils N.
4
10
-0.8
Peter N.
3
9
-0.9

2024

Sebastian N.
2
8
+3.5
Carl D.
4
8
+2.3
Peter N.
5
10
+1.4
Jens C.
3
7
+1.1
Crl H.
2
5
+1.0
Nils N.
1
8
-0.4
Albin H.
5
8
-0.8
Claes R.
5
9
-1.6

2023

Nils N.
6
11
+2.6
Sebastian N.
5
8
+1.8
Claes R.
3
8
+1.5
Albin H.
4
7
+1.4
Jens C.
3
6
+1.3
Carl D.
2
5
-0.3
Peter N.
3
8
-0.5
Per S.
3
7
-1.3

2022

Carl D.
2
8
+2.6
Sebastian N.
5
10
+2.4
Peter N.
4
10
+2.1
Per S.
2
6
+1.9
Albin H.
4
9
+0.6
Nils N.
2
8
-0.1
Jens C.
5
9
-0.3
Claes R.
4
10
-2.3

2021

Carl D.
5
11
+3.9
Per S.
3
10
+3.4
Albin H.
4
8
+1.9
Claes R.
4
7
+0.9
Peter N.
2
5
+0.3
Nils N.
6
8
-0.1
Jens C.
9
11
-0.4
Sebastian N.
1
5
-2.8

Bar spans worst → best possible record · gold marker is what actually happened · right column is wins above the average schedule

Games the Bench Cost You

Regular-season losses where the optimal lineup from that same roster would have outscored the opponent. Not bad luck — bad calls.

Worst Lineup Calls Ever

Single weeks with the largest gap between what was started and what could have been.

Nils N.−74.5
2021 wk 12 · started 96.1 of 170.6 (56%) · lost
Albin H.−70.9
2022 wk 17 · started 132.6 of 203.5 (65%)
Claes R.−69.0
2021 wk 12 · started 92.6 of 161.6 (57%) · lost
Peter N.−67.8
2021 wk 17 · started 137.6 of 205.4 (67%)
Jens C.−61.7
2023 wk 15 · started 113.1 of 174.8 (65%)
Sebastian N.−60.9
2022 wk 4 · started 109.9 of 170.8 (64%) · lost
Claes R.−59.4
2023 wk 15 · started 113.2 of 172.6 (66%)
Nils N.−58.4
2024 wk 3 · started 120.4 of 178.8 (67%) · lost

Best and Worst Managed Seasons

Lineup efficiency by season — how close a manager got to their roster's ceiling, and how much a season of bad calls actually cost. Flip between the two ends of the list.

highest efficiency first
ManagerSeasonEfficiencyStartedOptimalLeft behindCostFinish
Nils N.
Yomamma McNilson
2025
6-7
93.1%18341971−1373 L3
Carl D.
Äldreboendet FarfarsSvettiga
2025
6-7
91.8%16121761−1481 L8
Jens C.
Smögen Fond Säck
2021
9-5
90.7%20092215−2062 L🏆 1st
Jens C.
Smögen Fond Säck
2023
6-7
89.6%16451822−1772 L6
Peter N.
Team DoG-LasN´Raider
2022
9-5
89.5%18122021−2092 L2
Sebastian N.
Stream Team
2023
8-5
88.6%17311952−2212 L2
Carl D.
Äldreboendet FarfarsSvettiga
2021
11-3
88.6%18282061−233—2
Claes R.
Två Brutna Ben
2024
5-8
88.5%17742003−2304 L5
Per S.
Let's Fucking Go
2022
6-8
88.1%15661772−2063 L6
Albin H.
Spli FF Gluten
2022
7-7
87.9%18052038−2323 L🏆 1st
Peter N.
Team DoG-LasN´Raider
2025
5-8
87.9%17592007−2472 L6
Nils N.
Yomamma McNilson
2022
5-9
87.6%17011945−2431 L5

Left behind · points the best available lineup would have added over the season · Cost · losses that same lineup would have turned into wins